NEUTRONS & ENERGY FOR THE FUTURE
Setting the Energy Scenario

SUMMARY Energy Scenario Hydrogen Economy Soft matter Other topics

Overview/stage-setting session
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New Materials for Global Energy Needs
There is a real need for a renewed emphasis on energy-focused research.
The world needs 13 TW of clean power for the future that is accessible by everyone.
Recent advances in analytical instrumentation, computing capabilities, biological research, and nanoscience/technology offer the possibilities of real solutions.

Fundamental research is needed - these are not simple problems, and “tweaks” to current technologies will not be enough.
Neutron Scattering will be a major contributor to understanding the tough scientific and technological issues
Basic Research Directions
Materials Research to Transcend Energy Barriers

Energy Biosciences
Research Towards the Hydrogen Economy
Energy Storage
Novel Membrane Assemblies
Heterogeneous Catalysis
Energy Conversion
Energy Utilization Efficiency
Nuclear Fuel Cycles and Actinide Chemistry
Geosciences

Bibliographic Reference:

Basic Research Needs To Assure A Secure Energy Future
Linda Horton (ORNL, USA)

Director Center for Nanophase Materials Science project
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Bethel Valley Road
P.O Box 2008
Oak ridge, TN 37831-6132
Basic Research Needs for the Hydrogen Economy
Enormous gap between present state-of-the-art capabilities and requirements that will allow hydrogen to be competitive with today’s energy technologies.

Enormous R&D efforts will be required. Research is highly interdisciplinary.Basic and applied research should couple seamlessly.

Using Neutrons to “See” Hydrogen
The large neutron cross sections of hydrogen and deuterium make neutrons an ideal probe for in situ studies of hydrogen-based chemical reactions, surface interactions, catalytic reactions and of hydrogen in penetrating through membranes.
High Priority Research Directions
Low-cost and efficient renewable (solar) energy production of hydrogen.
Nanoscale catalyst design.
Biological, biomimetic, and bio-inspired materials and processes.
Complex hydride materials.
Nanostructured / novel hydrogen storage materials
Low-cost, highly active, durable cathodes for low-temperature fuel cells
Membranes and separations processes for hydrogen production and fuel cells
Mildred Dresselhaus
Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Institute Professor and Professor of Physics and Electrical Engineering
millie@mgm.mit.edu
Global Energy Landscape
What lies behind the “veil of the future” is not knowable;
Policies can impact future Economy - Energy - Environment (E3) directions, but unanticipated consequences abound;

Main drivers of future E3 economy-energy-environmental trajectories are demographics, economic growth, (GDP), and technological change with future events strongly moderated by availability of resources (natural, physical, and human capital);

In spite of quadrupling of global population (POP), average annual per-capita consumption of commercial energy (PEC) nearly quadrupled. Efficiency improvements over the last century have been crucial in meeting growing energy demands; affluent nations derive 2-3 more useful energy per unit of primary energy in 2000 than in 1900 (Smil, 2003). Structural changes, however, are needed now, in that expansion of energy supply to meet growing demand today is encountering new barriers/constraints that did not exist in the past: environmental and resource limits. Demand-side efficiency improvements and conservation will continue to play as crucial role as enlarging supply-side options.

A key attribute of global energy use today is that it proceeds at two levels, wherein the average per-capita commercial primary energy use of affluent countries is 5-20 times that of developing countries (including the 2-billion without access to electricity); the main challenge is to “connect the unconnected” in a way that is environmentally stable and economically equitable.


The relationship between energy use (PE, EJ/yr) and economy productivity (GDP, USD/yr) is dynamic and complex, depending on developmental stage. Generally, once energy-intensive infrastructure is developed for a given economy, the energy intensity, EI(MJ/USD) = PE/GDP, decreases. Generation of ‘know-how’ and related efficiencies spill over from developed to developing economies; no need to repeat the EI trajectory of the former. Long-term record shows that EI time trajectories are not preordained; they can be altered both by technological change and determined policy; strong regional ‘anomalies’ exist. Large disparities in national income [GDP, an imperfect, perhaps misleading measure (Cobb, et al., 1995)] and energy utilizations (EI) exists, however; global averages camouflage much. Key factors impacting EI magnitudes and trajectories include: country size; personal energy consumption; climate; industrial structure; composition of primary energy supply; degree of energy self-sufficiency; military demands for energy (Smil, 2003).

Model-based scenario analyses provide an invaluable tool for examining impacts/effectiveness of policies; scenarios are surprise-free projections, not predictions.
Most Scenarios tending to describe futures that are generally more affluent than today.

Many Scenarios-Based Landscapes Lead to Similar Emissions by the end of the 21st century.

Technology Change Driver is at Least as Important as Demographics or Economic Development across a wide set of possible scenarios

A range of energy transitions from yesterday to today to/through Fossil-Intensive to Post-Fossil (H2 + Electricity) energy futures are possible, with such transitions perhaps occuring simultaneously in different regions; the challenge for E3 modelers is to chart these possibilities, the attendant consequences and the policies needed to achieve optimal interactive transitions


Bibliographic Reference:
Smil, V., Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA (2003).

Cobb, C., T. Halstead, and J. Rowe, “If the GDP is UP, Why is America Down?”, The Atlantic Monthly, (October, 1995).
Robert Krakowski
Energy-Economics Group
Paul Scherrer Institute - PSI
CH-5232 Villigen
robert.krakowski@psi.ch
Telephone: +41 56 310 4740
Neutrons and Energy for the Future - A BES Perspective
Neutrons...
The highest priority for neutron scattering is to exploit the best U.S. neutron source capabilities, including the SNS.

Develop 85% of beam lines with best-in-class instruments;
Maximize beam time to the broad scientific community;
Fully staff and support the neutron scattering instruments;
Provide support for research using neutron scattering techniques.

... and Energy
The BESAC report highlighted 37 proposed research directions.
Many of these research directions require advanced x-ray, neutron, and electron scattering probes.
We have wonderful, world-leading facilities and a host of scientific problems that promise revolutions in understanding and significant impacts on energy technology.

But, out-year budgets for discretionary spending, i.e., science, will likely be constrained.
Moreover, simple and compelling expositions of the “what” and the “worth” of non-medical-related physical sciences research are not yet perfected.

Scientific communities, professional societies, user groups, the NRC, agencies, and more must not ignore this. It’s time for increased efforts to communicate, perhaps in new ways, the importance of science to decision makers.


Bibliographic Reference:
Report on the Status and Needs of Major Neutron Scattering Facilities and Instruments in the United States , June 2002

American Association for the Advancement of Science AAAS R&D Budget and policy program
Dr. Patricia Dehmer
Director Office of Basic Energy Sciences- Office of Science
U.S. Department of Energy
SC-10/Germantown Building
U.S. Department of Energy
1000 Independence Avenue, SW
Washington, DC 20585-1290
mailto:patricia.dehmer@science.doe.gov
Phone: 301/903-3081
Fax: 301/903-6594



Last modified on 29/06/2004
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